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Ag Market Commentary

Alan Brugler - Barchart - Wed Aug 05, 4:44PM UTC

Front month corn futures are up by 2 to 2 3/4 cents through midday trading. Ethanol production averaged 931,000 barrels per day according to EIA data. That was down 27k bpd from the week prior. Ethanol stocks ticked 74k barrels higher to 20.346 million barrels. Official June corn export data showed 5.035 MMT of corn was shipped. That was down from May, but up 70% yr/yr. Ethanol exports were 78.5m gallons, which was the lowest June shipment since 2016. June DDGS exports were 883,193 MT. That was up 47% mo/mo, but still 8% below June ’19. Traders anticipate USDA’s weekly update to Export Sales to show between 100-600k MT of old crop sales. New crop sales are estimated between 2.0 and 2.6 MMT for the week ending July 30.

Sep 20 Corn is at $3.10 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.22 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.34 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

May 21 Corn is at $3.43, up 2 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

So far soybeans are trading 2 3/4 to 4 cents lower in the front months. Soymeal futures are 50 to 80 cents lower at midday. There were 219 deliveries against august soymeal, MTD total is 291 contracts. August soybean oil is 3 points weaker at midday, the other front months are down 17 to 20 points. There were 142 deliveries issued against Aug bean oil futures, which brought the month’s total to 764. Private exporters sold 192,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2020/21 delivery. Official soybean exports in June were 1.8 MMT. That was 9% lower than May and down by 45% from June ’19. Meal exports were up 7.8% from May with 1.07 MMT shipped. Bean oil exports were the second lowest in the MY at 76,052 MT. MYTD oil shipments are the largest through June since the 09/10 MY. Traders estimate bean bookings between 200k and 550k MT ahead of the Export Sales report. New crop soybean sales are estimated between 0.6 and 1.2 MMT. US and China trade reps reportedly plan to meet via video conference on August 15 to assess compliance by China on the Phase One deal. Egypt issued an international tender for soy oil.

Aug 20 Soybeans are at $8.80, down 3 3/4 cents,

Sep 20 Soybeans are at $8.76 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents,

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $8.78, down 3 3/4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans are at $8.85, down 3 cents,

Aug 20 Soybean Meal is at $282.90, down $0.80

Aug 20 Soybean Oil is at $31.50, down $0.03

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wednesday wheat trading has futures moving in both directions through midday. SRW futures are lower in the deferred contracts with fractional to 1 3/4 cent losses. The nearby SRW futures are up by 1/2 to 1 1/4 cents. KC wheat is in the green with gains of as much as 2 3/4 cents so far. MPLS HRS wheat futures are fractionally mixed. June wheat exports from CENSUS was 2.283 MMT. That was the largest start to MY wheat shipments since the 17/18 MY. Traders anticipate USDA will show between 200,000 and 800,000 MT of wheat was sold on the week ending July 30. Egypt’s GASC issued a tender for an unspecified amount of wheat for September delivery. Results are expected later today, with offers from Russia and Ukraine.

Sep 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.09 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

Sep 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.24 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

Sep 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.02 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are in the red at the midweek session. Futures are down by as much as 45 cents in the front months. Feeder cattle futures are down 40 to 70 cents at midday. The August 3 CME Feeder Cattle index was $140.50, 70 cents higher on the day. In this morning’s online auction from FCE, all but one pen was sold. One TX pen went for $99.75, but the other sales were $100. Yesterday in KS some light trading took place at $99 and at $100. Beef exports in June were an 11 year low for the month, as just 183.3 million lbs were shipped. That was also 3% below May’s 50 month low for beef exports. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed Wednesday morning, narrowing the Chc/Sel spread to $12.65. Choice boxes were quoted at $203.66 in the AM report, lower by 58 cents. And Select boxes strengthened by 56 cents. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter was back up on Tuesday at 119,000 head. That brought the WTD total to 232,000 head, down 4,000 wk/wk and 9,000 head from last year.

Aug 20 Cattle are at $101.900, down $0.375,

Oct 20 Cattle are at $107.025, down $0.450,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $111.150, down $0.225,

Aug 20 Feeder Cattle are at $144.250, down $0.450

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle are at $146.025, down $0.600

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $146.675, down $0.400

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures are up triple digits in Dec and Feb ’21 contracts, but August contracts are 15 cents in the red so far. The CME Lean Hog index was $52.81, down by another 30 cents on Aug 3. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Wednesday morning was a dime lower at $38.65. CENSUS data suggests June pork exports were 515 million lbs. That was a 9 month low, but still a record for June. Each of the last 13 months has been a respective monthly record for Official pork exports. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $3.21 higher in the AM repot at $68.71. Hams were the biggest mover with a $12.47 cwt. bump to $52.74. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 474,000 head WTD through Tuesday. That is down 1,000 head from last week and even with a year ago.

Aug 20 Hogs are at $49.525, down $0.175,

Oct 20 Hogs are at $49.275, up $0.250

Dec 20 Hogs are at $51.590, up $1.015

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

So far, for the third trade day of August, front month cotton futures are gaining. Futures are up 15 to 38 points adding to carry. CENSUS data suggest cotton shipments in June were 1.238m bales. The Seam posted sales of 21,976 bales on Monday, with an average gross price of 57.25 cents/lb. That was the largest daily sale since Jan 17 of 2020 sold 27,433 bales. The 7-day QPF shows very little precip over the next week for much of the South. The Cotlook A index was back up by 80 points to 70.35 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 47.71 cents/lb, and the LDP is 4.29 cents/lb. Both updated after tomorrow.

Oct 20 Cotton is at 64.08, up 15 points,

Dec 20 Cotton is at 64.39, up 38 points

Mar 21 Cotton is at 65.07, up 36 points

May 21 Cotton is at 65.5, up 38 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

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