Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Thu Jun 06, 7:28AM CDT

Corn futures are trading 5 to 7 cents lower ahead of the weekly Export Sales report. They ended the Wednesday session with most contracts 10 to 10 3/4 cents lower. Weakness in wheat pressured the market, with the corn-KC wheat spread at 31 cents, nearing the 3-year low posted back in early May. Mexican importers did purchase a cargo of Brazilian corn. That is not surprising due to the expected tighter US supplies and FOB premium to their Southern counterpart. The weekly EIA report shows ethanol production for the final week of May at 1.044 million barrels per day, down 13,000 from the week prior. Stocks were down 71,000 barrels to 22.553 million barrels. Old crop corn export sales are expected to be reported at 500,000-800,000 MT this morning, with new crop at 50,000-250,000 MT in the week of May 30. IEG Vantage (formerly Informa) revised their US acreage estimate to 84.94 million planted acres of corn for 2019, while using an average yield of 174 bpa. A Bloomberg survey found the average analyst estimate for 2019/20 corn ending stocks dropped to 1.772 billion bushels from the May USDA figure of 2.485 billion.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are 8 to 9 cents lower on Thursday morning after showing 11 to 12 cent losses in the nearby contracts on Wednesday. Soy meal was down $3.30/ton, with bean oil down 27 points. Forecasts for the next few days show areas of dryness to allow for some planting progress. Analysts with IEG Vantage estimate that 2019 US soybean planted acres will total 85.037 million, with a projected national average yield at 51.1 bpa. The USDA Export Sales report is expected to show 200,000-500,000 MT of old crop soybeans sold in the week ending May 30, with 50,000-25,000 MT for new crop. Soy Meal sales are seen at 100,000-350,000 MT, with soy oil at 8,000-25,000 MT. President Trump is also threatening to implement the tariffs on the final $300 billion in Chinese exports to the US.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 2 to 4 cents lower in the Chicago and KC contracts this morning. MPLS spring wheat is fractionally higher. They posted 12 to 22 3/4 cent losses in most contracts on Wednesday, with KC leading the way to the downside. Forecasts show lighter rainfall totals in the Southern Plains over the next week than previously projected. Spring wheat planting estimates from IEG Vantage show 12.2 million acres other than durum, which is below the USDA’s earlier 12.8 million acres. The same group has all wheat acreage at 45 million, down ~800,000 from USDA’s latest number. Ahead of this morning’s Export Sales report, analysts expect USDA will show net reductions of 100,000 MT to 200,000 MT in old crop sales due to rollovers. New crop estimates are running 100,000-400,000 MT due to rising prices in the week ending May 30.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were up 30 cents to $1.05 in most contracts on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures were $1.775 to $2 higher, with help from weakness in corn. The CME feeder cattle index was down 31 cents to $131.88 on June 4. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 89 cents at $222.11 with Select boxes 3 cents higher @ $207.18. USDA shows FI cattle slaughter WTD through Wednesday at 360,000 head. That was 2,000 head larger than the same week last year. Cash trade this week has been around $113 in the South and $114 in the North. Both are $2 lower than last week. Wednesday’s FCE auction saw sales of $113 on 72 of the 412 head offered.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures saw 47.5 cent to $2.125 gains in most contracts, with nearby June down $1.275 ahead of next Friday’s expiration. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 38 cents from the previous day @ $80.90 on June 3. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 58 cents at $83.07 on Wednesday afternoon. The national average base hog was up 31 cents on Wednesday, with a weighted average price of $76.34. Estimated FI hog slaughter WTD through Wednesday is 1.419 million head, 78,000 head above the same week last year. There is a threat of Mexican retaliatory tariffs on US goods should President Trump follow through with the 5% tariffs on Monday. Rumors regarding the Mexican response show a similar list to last year’s steel and aluminum tariff spat, which included pork and was just recently lifted.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 43 to 67 points lower this morning. They were down 23 to 47 points in most contracts on Wednesday. The US dollar index was higher on Wednesday but is considerably weaker this morning. The Cotlook A index for June 4 was up 125 points from the previous day to 80.35 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is 61.31 cents/lb through Thursday. The latest CFTC On Call report (June 1) showed merchants with 35,650 unfixed call sales tied to the July contract, with 2,881 unfixed call purchases

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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