Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Thu May 16, 7:27AM CDT

Corn futures are trading 4 to 5 cents higher this morning. They settled steady to 1 1/4 cents higher on Wednesday. Soil moisture models show some drying this week, which should allow for planting to pick up a little. However, 7 day accumulations of 4 to 5 inches are in the forecast for the Corn Belt. Weekly EIA ethanol production and implied corn use was the largest since the week of January 11 at 1.051 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks were also drawn down by 218,000 barrels to 22.25 million barrels. This morning, USDA is expected to show 200,000-500,000 MT of old crop corn sales in the week of May 9, with new crop seen at 100,000-400,000 MT. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are mostly 6 cents per bushel higher this morning ahead of the Export Sales report. They ended the Wednesday session with most contracts 3 to 4 cents higher. Short covering continued, with preliminary open interest down 6,268 contracts. July soy meal was up $1.80/ton, with soybean oil 24 points higher. The NOPA report showed 159.99 mbu of soybeans were crushed by NOPA members in April. That was down 0.7% from April 2018. Soybean oil stocks were slightly higher than the average trade guess at 1.787 billion pounds. Analysts expect the USDA Export Sales report this morning to show 100,000-400,000 MT of old crop beans booked, with 200,000-600,000 MT for new crop sales. Soymeal is seen at 125,000-400,000 MT, with Soy oil at 5,000-25,000 MT. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are 7 1/2 to 11 cents higher this morning with Chicago SRW in the lead and MPLS spring wheat lagging. They ended Wednesday with the nearby HRW and HRS contracts 4 to 9 cents lower, and CBT fractionally mixed. The nearby CBT-KC spread is now 46 3/4 cents, the biggest SRW premium (or HRW discount) since 2007. Preliminary open interest for Chicago SRW sank 11,105 contracts, with long liquidation noted in July and September. Traders are looking for USDA to show 0-250,000 MT for old crop wheat export sales and 150,000-350,000 MT for new crop delivery in this morning’s weekly report. Ukraine’s wheat crop for 2019 is expected to be at 26.2 MMT according to one of the country’s consultants, up 1.6 MMT from their previous number. USDA is at 29 MMT--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures saw marginal gains in most contracts on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures were down 7.5 to 60 cents in most contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was down 30 cents to $134.77 on May 14. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 55 cents at $219.57 with Select boxes 93 cents lower @ $208.04. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 363,000 head through Wednesday. That was up 1,000 head from the previous week and 6,000 above the same week last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction saw sales on 280 of the 376 head at $117. Most other cash sales around the country were also $117. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted triple digits gains in the front five months on Wednesday. China’s Ag Ministry says the country’s sow herd in April was down 22.3% from last year, with the hog herd down 20.8% year over year. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 23 cents from the previous day @ $83.27 on May 13. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.83 lower at $86.81 on Wednesday afternoon. The national average base hog was $81.79 on Wednesday, down 22 from the previous day. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 1.381 million head for the WTD through Wednesday. That was 34,000 head below the previous week but 8,000 above the same week last year. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are 40 to 58 point higher this morning, with the dollar and the equities both modestly higher. They were 10 to 41 points lower in most front months on Wednesday, with thinly traded Oct up 23 points. USDA will release their weekly Export Sales report in a few minutes, with data for the week ending May 9, a period following the US tweet about raising tariffs but while talks were continuing. The Chinese yuan is the weakest vs. the dollar since January, making imports of US cotton more expensive. The Cotlook A index for May 14 was down 300 points from the previous day to 76.00 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 64.65 cents/lb, down 3.62 cents from last week. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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