Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Wed May 15, 5:10PM CDT

Corn futures settled Wednesday with most contracts steady to 1 1/4 cents higher, with the front months coming down 8 to 10 cents from their intraday highs. Soil moisture models show some drying this week, which should allow for planting to pick up a little. However, rains are expected to return later in the weekend/beginning of next week in the Corn Belt. This morning’s weekly EIA report indicated the largest ethanol production and implied corn use number since the week of 1/11 at 1.051 million barrels per day. That was up 15,000 bpd from the previous week, as ethanol stocks were also drawn down by 218,000 barrels to 22.25 million barrels. USDA is expected to show 200,000-500,000 MT of old crop corn sales in the week of May 9, with new crop seen at 100,000-400,000 MT ahead of Thursday’s report. A private Ukrainian consultancy trimmed their corn crop estimate by 2.5 MMT to 33.1 MMT for 2019.

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.69 1/2, up 3/4 cent,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.78 1/4, up 1 cent,

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.88 3/4, up 1 cent

Mar 20 Corn closed at $4.00 1/2, up 1 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures ended the Wednesday session with most contracts 3 to 4 cents higher, coming ~12 cents off their highs in the front months. July soy meal was up $1.80/ton, with soybean oil 24 points higher. The Monthly crush report from NOPA showed that 159.99 mbu of soybeans were crushed by its member in April. That was below most estimates by a million bushels or so and down 0.7% from the same month last year. Soybean oil stocks were slightly higher than the average trade guess at 1.787 billion pounds. Analysts expect the Export Sales report on Thursday to show 100,000-400,000 MT of old crop beans, with 200,000-600,000 MT for new crop bookings. Soymeal is seen at 125,000-400,000, with Soy oil at 5,000-25,000 MT.

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.35 1/2, up 4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $8.42, up 4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $8.48, up 4 cents,

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.72 1/2, up 3 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal closed at $299.80, up $1.80,

Jul 19 Soybean Oil closed at $27.24, up $0.24

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures closed Wednesday with the nearby HRW and HRS contracts 4 to 9 cents lower, and CBT fractionally mixed. The nearby CBT-KC spread is now 46 3/4 cents, the largest since 2007. The trade range of estimates ahead of Thursday’s Export Sales report show 0-250,000 MT for old crop wheat sales in the week of 5/9. New crop is seen at 150,000-350,000 MT. Ukraine’s wheat crop for 2019 is expected to be at 26.2 MMT according to one of the country’s consultants, up 1.6 MMT from their previous number. USDA is at 29 MMT. For the first time in more than a decade, Australia is importing it’s first cargo of wheat (from Canada), following tight local supplies in recent years.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.48 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.02, down 6 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.15 1/4, down 8 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures saw marginal gains in most contracts on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures were down 7.5 to 60 cents in most contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was down 30 cents to $134.77 on May 14. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 55 cents at $219.57 with Select boxes 93 cents lower @ $208.04. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 363,000 head through Wednesday. That was up 1,000 head from the previous week and 6,000 above the same week last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction saw sales on 280 of the 376 head at $117. Most other cash sales around the country today were also $117.

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $109.675, up $0.175,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $106.975, up $0.250,

Oct 19 Cattle closed at $106.750, up $0.275,

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $135.925, down $0.075

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.275, down $0.225

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.225, down $0.350

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted triple digits gains in the front five months on Wednesday. China’s Ag Ministry says the country’s sow herd in April was down 22.3% from last year, with the hog herd down 20.8% year over year. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 23 cents from the previous day @ $83.27 on May 13. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.83 lower at $86.81 on Wednesday afternoon. All primals were reported lower. The national average base hog was $81.79 on Wednesday, down 22 from the previous day. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 1.381 million head for the WTD through Wednesday. That was 34,000 head below the previous week but 8,000 above the same week last year.

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $91.825, up $2.700,

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $91.925, up $1.875

Aug 19 Hogs closed at $92.625, up $1.450

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were 10 to 41 points lower in most front months on Wednesday, with thinly traded Oct up 23 points. USDA will release their weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning, with data for the week ending May 9, a period following the US tweet about raising tariffs but while talks were continuing. The Chinese yuan is the weakest vs. the dollar since January, making imports of US cotton more expensive. The Cotlook A index for May 14 was down 300 points from the previous day to 76.00 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 64.65 cents/lb, down 3.62 cents from last week.

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 66.350, down 41 points,

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 67.690, up 23 points

Dec 19 Cotton closed at 66.890, down 10 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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