Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Wed May 15, 7:31AM CDT

Corn futures are trading 3 to 8 cents higher this morning, with buying focused in the nearby contracts. They saw double digit gains in the 2019 contracts, with deferred contracts 4 to 10 cents higher. There was some modest short covering, with preliminary open interest dropping 5,329 contracts. Planting delays are still a worry, particularly if they result in more prevented planting insurance claims. The 7-day QPF forecast shows precip in the WCB, with minimal amounts in the ECB, which may allow for some planting (if soils can dry out). The 6-10 day outlook looks wetter than normal for most of the Corn Belt. IEG Vantage (Informa) put their 2019 US corn acreage estimate at 90.7 million acres, a bull friendly 2.1 million acres below USDA’s March Planting Intentions survey number.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are 10 to 12 cents higher on more short covering after posting sharp 26 to 29 cent gains in most contracts on Tuesday. While some Chicago traders estimated fund buying at over 40,000 contracts yesterday, the preliminary open interest from the Merc showed modest short covering of -5,555 contracts. If the bear party is breaking up, a lot of people need to leave. July soy meal was up $10.70/ton, with soybean oil 39 points higher. Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed that NC was the only state reported at faster than normal pace as of 5/12. MN and IL were 3% planted, with OH and IN at 2%. IA is 13% seeded, with NE at 20% complete. NOPA’s report today is expected by traders to show April member crush of 161.607 mbu, which would be slightly higher than last year. Soybean oil stocks are seen at ~1.779 billion pounds. IEG Vantage, formerly Informa, puts the US soybean acreage for 2019 at 86.4 million acres, up 1.8 million acres from USDA March Intentions.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 3 to 7 cents higher this morning. They closed the Tuesday session with most winter wheat contracts 10 to 12 cents higher, as MPLS was up 3 to 5 1/4 cents. Double digit gains in corn helped to support the wheat complex. USDA showed conditions in KS down 1 point, with OK up 9 and TX improving 2 points on the Brugler500 index from the week prior. Most SRW states saw lower ratings. Spring wheat planters managed to find some dry ground last week with MN reported at 35% planted, with ND at 37% and SD 46% complete, all making decent progress from the week prior. Rains forecast in those areas on the 5-day QPF may slow progress. Acreage estimates from IEG Vantage show US spring wheat at 12.4 million acres for 2019, down 470,000 acres from the March Planting Intentions report

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures were down 20 to 55 cents in most contracts on Tuesday. Open interest continues to roll out of the June and into the August contract. Overall there was net new selling of 2,951 contracts. Feeder cattle futures felt some pressure from higher corn, down 60 cents to $1.175, as May was up 95 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was down 32 cents to $135.07 on May 13. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $1.46 at $220.12 with Select boxes 8 cents higher @ $208.97. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 242,000 head through Tuesday. That was up 2,000 head from the previous week and 5,000 above the same week last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction shows a total of 376 head of cattle offered for sale on the platform.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were steady to $2.45 higher in most contracts on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 24 cents from the previous day @ $83.04 on May 10. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 40 cents at $88.64 on Tuesday afternoon. The national average base hog was $82.02 on Tuesday, up $1.14 from the previous day. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 921,000 head for the WTD through Tuesday. That was 21,000 head below the previous week but 6,000 above the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 31 lower to 33 higher this morning. They had 46 to 131 point gains in most contracts on Turnaround Tuesday. The US stock market is lower and the dollar is stronger. IEG Vantage estimates that US cotton producers will plant 14.1 million acres of cotton, 335,000 acres larger than the USDA Intentions survey found at the end of March. The Cotlook A index for May 10 was down 170 points from the previous day to 79.00 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 64.65 cents/lb, down 3.62 cents from last week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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